[SMM Analysis] Operating Rates of Refined Tin Smelters in Two Regions Continue to Decline as Raw Material Supply Becomes Increasingly Tight

Based on processed data obtained through in-depth market surveys by SMM and thorough analysis, we observed that as of last Friday, the operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces continued to decline, with a combined figure of 62.42%. For smelters in the Yunnan region, their operating rates showed a sustained downward trend last week. As the year-end approaches, coupled with a continuous decrease in tin ore inflows, the shortage of tin ore supply in Yunnan has become increasingly evident, and some smelters are expected to suspend production and take holidays during the Chinese New Year. Meanwhile, with further tightening of ore supply, TCs for tin concentrates have shown a downward trend, which will compress the processing profits of smelters. Last week, smelters in Jiangxi experienced a slight drop back in operating rates. Year-end scrap supply has tightened, making raw material procurement challenging for some smelters. Additionally, as the year-end nears, most smelters plan to suspend production and take holidays, leading to a decline in current operating rates. Considering these multiple factors, we anticipate that the operating rates of smelters in Jiangxi may see a certain degree of pullback in the future. In summary, based on a comprehensive analysis and forecast of the current situation, we believe that the operating rates of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces will continue to decline in the coming period, potentially reaching an annual low around the time of the Little New Year.